Friday, July 28, 2006

 
Daily Market Commentary

Updated Thursday, 7/27 for Friday's
market


Key DOW Levels for 7/28

UP

Above 11,200

DN

Below 11,050


Mid-Day Decline

- Dow sells off from early highs, drops back to key 11,100 level. The index closed the day with a 2 point loss, but could be gearing up for a much steeper decline.

- The NASDAQ and S&P each sold off from early highs today and continue to be rejected by resistance. Today's decline could be the beginning of much more selling ahead.

Summary

The Dow closed the day with a small loss today and is showing a reluctance to break through the top of the large range at 11,200. Watch 11,050 for early signs of weakness tomorrow, unless 11,200 is solidly crossed.

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Trading Education Tutorial

Time Trading

Sophisticated technical indicators evolve from simple data inputs of price and time. While most traders understand how price patterns reveal hidden opportunity, many fail to comprehend how time impacts both tactics and results. Lacking a skilled understanding of opportunity cost, they misinterpret signals and waste valuable resources. Or, trapped in common trend relativity errors, they prepare trades in one time frame but execute them in another.

Opportunity cost defines how the trader manipulates working capital. For example, this important concept reveals why cutting losses efficiently is so important for long term survival. By its nature, taking any stock position dictates that those funds will not be available for another trade. This becomes a critical issue on account drawdowns when individual trades can dictate success or failure for the aspirant.

All trends in the markets are time frame specific. For example, the existence of an uptrend in a daily chart says nothing about the trend in the monthly or intraday chart. This highlights the importance of correct time input in preparing technical indicators or reading chart patterns. When improperly time-tuned, technical analysis loses its effectiveness. Alternatively, resonant time readings will evoke startling accuracy with otherwise mediocre data input
..

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Thursday, July 27, 2006

 
NASDAQ Chart of the Day



CONR is getting the initial upside break through the top of the large triangle range, which is highly bullish. Watch for follow-through above 28.50 for continued strength.

Daily Trading Signals

 
NYSE Chart of the Day



LYV is consolidating within the boundaries of a clear range from 20.75 to 22.50. Watch for a breakout from this range for solid movement.

Daily Trading Signals

 
Daily Market Commentary

Updated Wednesday, 7/26 for Thursday's
market

Key DOW Levels for 7/27

UP

Above 11,175

DN

Below 11,025


Steady Advance

- Dow pushes slowly higher from early lows, tests key 11,150 level. The index smacked into the key 11,150 resistance level and dropped to the close for a 1 point loss. Watch 11,150 closely for key direction..

- The NASDAQ and S&Peach rallied from early lows to test resistance today, but failed to break out. Watch resistance tomorrow for a break or bounce.

Summary

The Dow ended the day basically flat after testing critical resistance at 11,150 today, but could get another crack at this level tomorrow. Watch 11,175 for a potential breakout and 11,025 for early signs of key weakness.

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Trading Education Tutorial

Double Tops and Bottoms




Waiting for the Setup to Complete Results in Profits

There are various chart patterns that help us find good reversal candidates. Of the major reversal patterns, the double top or bottom is not only one of the most recognizable, but also one of the most predictive...

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Wednesday, July 26, 2006

 
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Quantum Swing Trader - Profit Pulling Swing Trading Principles

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Trading Education Tutorial

Saucer Patterns



Rare Pattern Is One of the Most Predictive

One of the most predicitive chart patterns you will come across is the saucer pattern. Saucers are also referred to as "bowls" or even "rounded tops or bottoms", and one look at this pattern tells where these names are derived from. However, there is a problem with saucer patterns - they're hard to find...

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Technical Indicators

Linear Regression Indicator

The Linear Regression Indicator plots the trend of a security's price over time. That trend is determined by calculating a Linear Regression Trendline using the least squares method. This ensures the minimum distance between the data points and a Linear Regression Trendline.

Unlike the straight Linear Regression Trendline, the Linear Regression indicator plots the ending values of multiple Linear Regression trendlines. Any point along the Linear Regression Indicator will be equal to the ending value of a Linear Regression Trendline, but the result looks more like a Moving Average...

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NASDAQ Chart of the Day



DXPE has gotten a solid breakaway gap to the upside on increased volume, which is highly bullish. Watch for continued upside movement from this stock.

Daily Trading Signals

 
NYSE Chart of the Day


FBN is getting a solid upside break through a clear upper trend line at 20.00 which is very bullish. If the index can remain above 20.00, we could see a nice follow-through to the upside.

Daily Trading Signals

 
Daily Market Commentary

Updated Tuesday, 7/25 for Wednesday's
market

Key DOW Levels for 7/26

UP

Above 11,150

DN

Below 11,000


Late-Day Rally

- Dow winds up throughout session, rallies big late in the afternoon. The index wound up within a tight triangle range and eventually got a huge upside break that led to a steady rally to the Close, enough for a nice 53 point gain. Continue to watch the major upper trend line for medium term direction.

- The NASDAQ and S&P each rallied solidly to the Close to end the day in bullish fashion. If the indexes can remain above near-term support, we could see big strength ahead. Otherwise, a violation of these support levels will open the door to more selling.

Summary

The Dow closed the day with a solid rally after winding up throughout the session today. The index is now testing a major upper trend line that could tell the story for the next key medium term move in this index. Watch 11,150 and 11,000 for big directional movement.

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Tuesday, July 25, 2006

 
NASDAQ Chart of the Day




IKAN is holding at key support at 12.00, which has held since last December. Watch for a break or bounce in this zone for key long term direction.

Daily Trading Signals

 
NYSE Chart of the Day


WCN is holding within the boundaries of a tight consolidation from 34.55 to 36.48. A breakout from this range could spark a nice move over the course of the next month. Watch this range closely.

Daily Trading Signals

 
Recent Picks / Trading Ideas
Bullish Fundamental Catalysts July 24
LAUR: The stock rose strongly and on high volume following an earnings announcement, it broke out of a descending channel. Also several catalysts for short-term price appreciation exist ...
Weekly Market Update July 24
1450 is now support level. Break below it - will stay on the short side. If the market breaks the 1500 resistance, this may be the end of the long term down trend ...
Bullish Stochastics, Volume and Price Movement July 20
The entire homebuilding sector has been under siege for months; BZH, like most homebuilders, is now showing signs that a short-term reversal may occur ...
Bull Flag July 17
Despite a weak market, WOOF has been performing quite well; the stock is up over 25% from June lows; Volume has followed the stock up and down ...
Trading Ideas for today July 17
Stock Picks - Daily Long (COP SLB MHL RSH) and Short (UVN HXL) Potential Swing Candidates ...
Bull Flag July 11
JBLU rose more than 30% from late April until late June; since then, it has been consolidating in a bull flag formation. A breakout would be bullish ...

 
Technical Indicators

Directional Momentum Indicator

The Directional Momentum Indicator is an attempt to quantify the trending or directional behavior of a market. It helps identify trends and whether or not price is moving quickly enough to be worth a long or short play.

+DI and -DI are components in the calculation of the ADX (Average Directional Movement) and ADXR (Directional Movement Rating) indicators. Perhaps the best way to think of the +DI is as a measure of the percentage of upwards movement. When the +DI value is greater than the -DI, a long position is indicated...

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Trading Education Tutorial

Breakaway Gaps




Pressure Helps Identify Movers

Gaps occur when there is a dramatic change in market conditions. They can occur at the beginning of a trading session (i.e. most NASDAQ stocks) or even during the session itself. There are three types of gaps that are of interest to us when we analyze charts: breakaway, measured (also known as continuation) and exhaustion gaps. Today we will discuss the breakaway gap...

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Daily Market Commentary

Updated Monday, 7/24 for Tuesday's
market

Key DOW Levels for 7/24

UP

Above 11,100

DN

Below 10,900


Solid Advance

- Dow breaks consolidation to upside, rallies to the Close. The index rallied through 11,000 to 11,050 and is now holding just beneath a major upper trend line that will be key to watch for medium term direction.

- The NASDAQ and S&P each blasted off right from the Open today and continue to maintain bullish momentum. Watch lower trend lines for early signs of weakness.

Summary

The Dow closed the day near the highs of the session after rocketing out of the tight consolidation at the Open. The index is now approaching a major upper trend line that could be a huge influence to future direction. Watch it closely.

Read More...

Monday, July 24, 2006

 
Daily Stock Picks

Bottoming -

July 21 for July 24:
ACAD APOL CAKE CBRL CHKP CNET CODI CPKI CTAS DELL DISCA ELNK GEPT HTCH IRBT JRCC KOPN KSWS MCHX MEAD MEDI MNTA MVIS NPSP OSTK PLSB PRTR PTMK SWKS THOR TRMS TXRH VION YHOO I

(
Stocks making a 52 WK low but closing higher than they opened)

Oversold Stocks -

July 21 for July 24:
CGPI HTCH LTXX

(Stocks closing higher than they opened, crossing up through their 25 Stochastic level, and on 150% + greater than average 6 month volume)

Overreaction -

July 21 for July 24:
BRCM DEPO EGLT HOKU HTCH IPIX IUSA NSIT PDFS PMCS UPFC ZHNE

(Potential Bullish Bounce: Stocks making a 52 WK low and moving down 10% or more in one day)

More... Stock Picks Page #1

 
Daily Stock Picks

Bottoming -

July 21 for July 24:
ACAD APOL CAKE CBRL CHKP CNET CODI CPKI CTAS DELL DISCA ELNK GEPT HTCH IRBT JRCC KOPN KSWS MCHX MEAD MEDI MNTA MVIS NPSP OSTK PLSB PRTR PTMK SWKS THOR TRMS TXRH VION YHOO I

(
Stocks making a 52 WK low but closing higher than they opened)

Oversold Stocks -

July 21 for July 24:
CGPI HTCH LTXX

(Stocks closing higher than they opened, crossing up through their 25 Stochastic level, and on 150% + greater than average 6 month volume)

Overreaction -

July 21 for July 24:
BRCM DEPO EGLT HOKU HTCH IPIX IUSA NSIT PDFS PMCS UPFC ZHNE

(Potential Bullish Bounce: Stocks making a 52 WK low and moving down 10% or more in one day)

More... Stock Picks Page #1

 
NASDAQ Chart of the Day



LAUR has gotten a huge breakaway gap to the upside on big volume and could be headed much higher. Look for continued overall strength from this stock.

Daily Trading Signals

 
Technical Indicators

Ease of Movement

TEase of Movement Indicator was designed to illustrate the relationship between volume and price change. It shows how much volume is required to move prices.

High Ease of Movement values occur when prices are moving upward with light volume. Low values occur when prices are moving downward on light volume. If prices are not moving or if heavy volume is required to move prices then the indicator will read near zero.

A buy signal is produced when it crosses above zero (an indication that prices are more easily moving upward ). A sell signal is produced when the indicator crosses below zero (prices are moving downward more easily)...

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Daily Market Commentary

Updated Friday, 7/21 for Monday's
market


Key DOW Levels for 7/24

UP

Above 10,925

DN

Below 10,825


Consolidating..

- Dow extends decline, forms continuation pattern at lows. The index closed the day at the lows of the session with a 60 point loss and is now winding up for the next move.

- The NASDAQ and S&P each traded mostly sideways today after selling off in the opening minutes. Look for continued range movement until a clear and solid breakout occurs.

Summary

The Dow closed the near the lows of the session within the boundaries of a tight consolidation. This consolidation could lead to the next big test of critical support or it will make for another run at highs. Either way, this is the range to watch.

Read More...

 
Daily Market Commentary

Updated Friday, 7/21 for Monday's
market


Key DOW Levels for 7/24

UP

Above 10,925

DN

Below 10,825


Consolidating..

- Dow extends decline, forms continuation pattern at lows. The index closed the day at the lows of the session with a 60 point loss and is now winding up for the next move.

- The NASDAQ and S&P each traded mostly sideways today after selling off in the opening minutes. Look for continued range movement until a clear and solid breakout occurs.

Summary

The Dow closed the near the lows of the session within the boundaries of a tight consolidation. This consolidation could lead to the next big test of critical support or it will make for another run at highs. Either way, this is the range to watch.

Read More...

 
Daily Market Commentary

Updated Friday, 7/21 for Monday's
market

Key DOW Levels for 7/24

UP

Above 10,925

DN

Below 10,825


Consolidating..

- Dow extends decline, forms continuation pattern at lows. The index closed the day at the lows of the session with a 60 point loss and is now winding up for the next move.

- The NASDAQ and S&P each traded mostly sideways today after selling off in the opening minutes. Look for continued range movement until a clear and solid breakout occurs.

Summary

The Dow closed the near the lows of the session within the boundaries of a tight consolidation. This consolidation could lead to the next big test of critical support or it will make for another run at highs. Either way, this is the range to watch.

Read More...

 
NYSE Chart of the Day



HOT is getting a solid downside break through clear support at 55.00, with assitance from a breakaway gap. This is very bearish and could send the stock into a steady decline. Watch for weakness beneath 56.00.

Daily Trading Signals

 
Trading Education Tutorial

Trendline Breaks




When is a Trend Truly Broken?

The importance of trendlines cannot be overstated when it comes to technical analysis. We are told to trade with the primary trend, exit when the trend reverses, enter on trend reversals, and so on. Trends are easy enough to identify, but when is a trend actually broken?

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