Thursday, May 24, 2007
Trading Ideas & Picks
Trading Picks - Read More
ATI - The two parallel trendlines have acted as areas of support and resistance in the past and it will be interesting to see if this story will continue. Technically speaking, the the trend is expected to remain upward until the price falls below $110.60, but we believe that a pullback may happen sooner than most expect...
Trading Ideas & Picks
Trading Ideas - Read More
CME: The stock entered into a Moving Average downtrend with the 20 EMA crossing over down through the 50 EMA. The stock confirmed the downtrend by reversing at the 50 EMA to move and consolidate under the 20 EMA. Go short to take advantage of the recent rise the Moving Averages in an overall downtrending stock...
Five Fibonacci Tricks
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Fibonacci jumped into the technical mainstream late in the bull market. Futures traders had it all to themselves until real-time software ported it over to the equity markets. Its popularity exploded as retail traders experimented with its arcane math and discovered its many virtues.
Fibonacci ratios describe the interaction between trend and countertrend markets -- 38%, 50% and 62% retracements form the primary pullback levels. Apply these percentages after a trend in either direction to predict the extent of the countertrend swing. Stretch a grid over the most obvious up or down wave, and see how percentages cross key price levels.
Convergence between pattern and retracement can point to excellent trading opportunities. Keep in mind that retracements work poorly in a vacuum. Always examine highs, lows and moving averages to confirm the importance of a specific level...
Fibonacci ratios describe the interaction between trend and countertrend markets -- 38%, 50% and 62% retracements form the primary pullback levels. Apply these percentages after a trend in either direction to predict the extent of the countertrend swing. Stretch a grid over the most obvious up or down wave, and see how percentages cross key price levels.
Convergence between pattern and retracement can point to excellent trading opportunities. Keep in mind that retracements work poorly in a vacuum. Always examine highs, lows and moving averages to confirm the importance of a specific level...
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Trading Education Tutorial
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Volume Climax
Volume Helps Identify Reversals
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Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Volume Climax
Volume Helps Identify Reversals
Various price patterns can alert us to potential reversal candidates. Trendline Breaks, Support and Resistance Levels, Fibonacci Retracement Levels and other price information are valuable in determining a change in direction for a security. However, one of the most overlooked chart patterns that help us determine reversals is not reflected in the price itself. Volume climaxes are easily identifiable and valuable in assessing a change in market sentiment.
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NASDAQ Chart of the Day
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Daily Trading Signals
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FFIV has been holding at the year's highs beneath major resistance at 80.75 since January. If FFIV cannot rise above this zone, we could see a big sell-off ahead from these levels, likely toward the year's lows.
Daily Trading Signals
NYSE Chart of the Day
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Daily Trading Signals
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
MGM took a large gap up yesterday on high volume, but hasn't been able to advance since. Given the large gap and the big spike in volume, we could see a volume climax reversal to the downside if 78.00 is crossed.
Daily Trading Signals
Daily Market Commentary
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Updated Wednesday, 5/23 for Thursday's market.
More Late-Day Selling....
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Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Updated Wednesday, 5/23 for Thursday's market.
| Key DOW Levels for 5/24 | |
| UP | Above 13,650 |
| DN | Below 13,500 |
More Late-Day Selling....
- Dow sells off from highs, drops into the Close. The index has sold off into the Close for the third straight session, but today's decline was much steeper, which could make for more weakness ahead.
- The NASDAQ and S&P each sold off heavily from the day's highs, but each stopped at key support levels, which we will watch closely for tomorrow's movement.
Summary
The Dow closed the day with another loss of 14 points after crossing the 13,600 zone earlier in the day. Watch 13,500 closely for signs of key weakness tomorrow.
- The NASDAQ and S&P each sold off heavily from the day's highs, but each stopped at key support levels, which we will watch closely for tomorrow's movement.
Summary
The Dow closed the day with another loss of 14 points after crossing the 13,600 zone earlier in the day. Watch 13,500 closely for signs of key weakness tomorrow.
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Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Voodoo Trading
Voodoo trading could add a lot to your bottom line. W.D. Gann, R.N. Elliott and other cultists spent years studying the market's mystical side, trying to figure out how obscure ideas could tap hidden profits. Magic numbers, astrological dates and prayer wheels have all been enlisted in the search for that elusive trading edge. Read More...
Voodoo trading could add a lot to your bottom line. W.D. Gann, R.N. Elliott and other cultists spent years studying the market's mystical side, trying to figure out how obscure ideas could tap hidden profits. Magic numbers, astrological dates and prayer wheels have all been enlisted in the search for that elusive trading edge. Read More...
Improve your trading with W.D. Gann's timeless methods - Forecasting service based on W.D. Gann's methods - The Complete Forecasting Package ... Gann Global Financial
Trading Education Tutorial
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Saucer Patterns
Rare Pattern Is One of the Most Predictive
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Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Saucer Patterns
Rare Pattern Is One of the Most Predictive
One of the most predicitive chart patterns you will come across is the saucer pattern. Saucers are also referred to as "bowls" or even "rounded tops or bottoms", and one look at this pattern tells where these names are derived from. However, there is a problem with saucer patterns - they're hard to find.
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NASDAQ Chart of the Day
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Daily Trading Signals
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
ROIAK is holding right at key resistance at 7.55, which has held firmly since January. If this stock cannot rise above 7.60, we will likely see another steady drop from these highs.
Daily Trading Signals
NYSE Chart of the Day
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Daily Trading Signals
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
FIX is holding right at a major resistance level at 14.10, which has held since last August. Look for a big downside reversal from these highs if 14.20 cannot be crossed and held.
Daily Trading Signals
Daily Market Commentary
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Updated Tuesday, 5/22 for Wednesday's market.
Another Late-Day Decline...
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Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Updated Tuesday, 5/22 for Wednesday's market.
| Key DOW Levels for 5/23 | |
| UP | Above 13,600 |
| DN | Below 13,500 |
Another Late-Day Decline...
- Dow drops from highs yet again, sells off to the Close. The index eventually rallied to new highs on the session, but succumbed to another late-day collapse, which should be concerning moving forward.
- The NASDAQ and S&P each traded mostly sideways today, but managed to rally to nice intraday highs later in the day. The late-day declines to the Close, however, could indicate potential selling pressure ahead.
Summary
The Dow ended the day within a very tight range that continues to build out at overall highs, but has ended the last two days with afternoon declines, which could lead to more selling ahead. Watch 13,500 for key directional clues tomorrow.
- The NASDAQ and S&P each traded mostly sideways today, but managed to rally to nice intraday highs later in the day. The late-day declines to the Close, however, could indicate potential selling pressure ahead.
Summary
The Dow ended the day within a very tight range that continues to build out at overall highs, but has ended the last two days with afternoon declines, which could lead to more selling ahead. Watch 13,500 for key directional clues tomorrow.
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Monday, May 21, 2007
Technical Indicators
Stochastic Oscillator
The Stochastic Oscillator compares the closing price of a security to its price range over a given time period. Its displayed by two lines, a main line called %K (drawn in solid blue) and a secondary line (in dotted green) called %D. The %D line is the moving average of the %K.
The Stochastic Oscillator contains four variables:
· %K Periods:
This is the number of time periods used in the stochastic calculation.
· %K Slowing Periods:
This value controls the internal smoothing of %K. A value of 1 is considered a fast stochastic while a value of 3 is considered a slow stochastic.
· %D Periods:
This is the number of time periods used when calculating the moving average of %K.
· %D Method:
The method (Exponential, Simple, Time Series, Triangular, Variable, or Weighted) used to calculate %D
When trading using the Stochastic Oscillator, one method is to buy when either %K or %D falls below 20 and then rises back above that level. Similarlily, sell when the either line rises above 80 and then falls back below. Another pattern to look for when timing trades is buy when the %K line rises above the %D line or sell when the %K line falls below the %D line. Lastly, one should always be on the lookout for diveregnces. For example, if prices are making a series of new highs and the Stochastic Oscillator fails to surpass its previous highs, the indicator typically will provide the clue as to where prices will soon head...
Read More...The Stochastic Oscillator compares the closing price of a security to its price range over a given time period. Its displayed by two lines, a main line called %K (drawn in solid blue) and a secondary line (in dotted green) called %D. The %D line is the moving average of the %K.
The Stochastic Oscillator contains four variables:
· %K Periods:
This is the number of time periods used in the stochastic calculation.
· %K Slowing Periods:
This value controls the internal smoothing of %K. A value of 1 is considered a fast stochastic while a value of 3 is considered a slow stochastic.
· %D Periods:
This is the number of time periods used when calculating the moving average of %K.
· %D Method:
The method (Exponential, Simple, Time Series, Triangular, Variable, or Weighted) used to calculate %D
When trading using the Stochastic Oscillator, one method is to buy when either %K or %D falls below 20 and then rises back above that level. Similarlily, sell when the either line rises above 80 and then falls back below. Another pattern to look for when timing trades is buy when the %K line rises above the %D line or sell when the %K line falls below the %D line. Lastly, one should always be on the lookout for diveregnces. For example, if prices are making a series of new highs and the Stochastic Oscillator fails to surpass its previous highs, the indicator typically will provide the clue as to where prices will soon head...
Trading Education Tutorial
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Triangles
Tightening Price Action Leads to a Breakout
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Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Triangles
Tightening Price Action Leads to a Breakout
There are various forms of consolidation and they occur anytime there is an equilibrium of buyers and sellers. One of the most predictive consolidation formations is the triangle.
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NASDAQ Chart of the Day
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Daily Trading Signals
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
GOOG is winding up within a large triangle range that has a backend of about 75 points, which means a breakout could spark a move of about the same distance. Watch 490 and 455 for signs that a big breakout could occur.
Daily Trading Signals
NYSE Chart of the Day
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Daily Trading Signals
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
KND is forming a large head-and-shoulders pattern that could make for big selling ahead. Watch the neck line of the pattern at 31.50 for a break that could lead back toward the 25.00 zone.
Daily Trading Signals
Daily Market Commentary
Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Updated Friday, 5/18 for Monday's market.
Steady Strength...
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Courtesy of Nirvana Systems
Updated Friday, 5/18 for Monday's market.
| Key DOW Levels for 5/21 | |
| UP | Above 13,600 |
| DN | Below 13,400 |
Steady Strength...
- Dow rallies at Open, holds gains to the Close. The index remains highly bullish and will likely continue this trend until the lower trend line is violated.
- The NASDAQ and S&P each pushed to new highs today after holding opening gains throughout the day. Look for more overall strength, but keep an eye on near-term support for early selling potential.
Summary
The Dow closed the day at the highs of the session, as the index continues to chug along, setting new highs every day. The index remains above the steep lower trend line, which we will watch for the first signs of potential selling pressure.
- The NASDAQ and S&P each pushed to new highs today after holding opening gains throughout the day. Look for more overall strength, but keep an eye on near-term support for early selling potential.
Summary
The Dow closed the day at the highs of the session, as the index continues to chug along, setting new highs every day. The index remains above the steep lower trend line, which we will watch for the first signs of potential selling pressure.
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