Friday, December 01, 2006

 
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Pressure Helps Identify Movers

Gaps occur when there is a dramatic change in market conditions. They can occur at the beginning of a trading session (i.e. most NASDAQ stocks) or even during the session itself. There are three types of gaps that are of interest to us when we analyze charts: breakaway, measured (also known as continuation) and exhaustion gaps. Today we will discuss the breakaway gap.

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NASDAQ Chart of the Day




PMTC has formed a clear triangle consolidation at the recent highs, which we will watch for the next key breakout move. Watch 20.00 up and 18.60 down.

Daily Trading Signals

 
NYSE Chart of the Day



AW has formed a clear head-and-shoulders pattern at the highs of the recent advance. The neck line is clearly established at 12.00, which we will watch for a potential decline.

Daily Trading Signals

 
Daily Market Commentary

Updated Thursday, 11/30 for Friday's market.


Key DOW Levels for 12/1

P

Above 12,300

DN

Below 12,175


Slow Uptrend...

- Dow reverses from early decline to end day basically flat. The index eventually closed with a 5 point loss, but looks to be gearing up for a much bigger decline.

- The NASDAQ and S&P each trended slowly higher from lows today, but are currently holding within highly bearish consolidations. Watch these ranges closely tomorrow.

Summary

The Dow closed the day just off the session's highs, but continues to build out a potentially bearish pennant consolidation, which we will watch closely tomorrow. A downside break through the bottom of this pattern at 12,175 could be big for bears. Watch 12,300 for continued near-term strength.

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P.S. - Most trading courses don't teach divergence trading... so when you learn a good divergence trading method, you can add it to just about any trend-following course or method you're currently using... Or, you can just trade divergences on their own. It's like having another tool in your trading "toolkit". Enjoy this video and learn how to add divergence trading to YOUR toolkit today. » Super Divergence Blueprint FREE Video...

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Thursday, November 30, 2006

 
Super Divergence Blueprint @Profits Run presents:

S&P500 Cash Video - did you avoid this drop?

Did you see what the S&P 500 Cash market did this week? After a nonstop bullish run since mid-July, it fell on 11/27, Monday.

Now, many traders may not have seen this coming. However, select traders that understand how to identify "divergences" in the market could have either closed out their long positions or entered into a short position right before this happened.

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Check out this short video that shows you how a step-by-step divergence method predicted this drop in the S&P 500 Cash market before it happened:

- How SDB predicted the drop on the S&P 500


P.S. - Most trading courses don't teach divergence trading... so when you learn a good divergence trading method, you can add it to just about any trend-following course or method you're currently using... Or, you can just trade divergences on their own. It's like having another tool in your trading "toolkit". Enjoy this video and learn how to add divergence trading to YOUR toolkit today. » Super Divergence Blueprint FREE Video...


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Trading Ideas & Picks

Swing Trade of the Week

ONXX: Stock surged past the support area of a trading range then traded at the lower end of the bearish colored candle, representing a consolidation and possible setup for further downside. Look to go short at 17.23...

Trading Ideas - Read More

 
Trading Ideas & Picks

Getty Images Inc - GYI - Testing the resistance of a descending trendline

GYI: is currently in the process of testing the resistance of a descending trendline. The chart is a good example of how a trendline can act as a strong barrier that prevents the price of an asset from moving higher...

Trading Picks - Read More

 



Identifiable Patterns After Confirmation Move

We have previously mentioned the three types of gaps that are of relevance to investors - the breakaway gap, the measured (or continuation) gap, and the exhaustion gap. We previously discussed the breakaway gap, but it is important to discuss the measured gap and exhaustion gap at the same time. Why? Because it is difficult to tell one from the other until after the fact.

Read More...

 
NASDAQ Chart of the Day




NVTL has formed a clear inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, which indicates a likely reversal is on the horizon. Watch for a break through 9.80 for signs of big strength.

Daily Trading Signals

 
NYSE Chart of the Day




ATG is breaking out of a large triangle range at 38.25, which indicates a bullish interest in this stock. Watch for continued strength out of this range toward a target of about 43.00.

Daily Trading Signals

 
Daily Market Commentary

Updated Wednesday, 11/29 for Thursday's market.


Key DOW Levels for 11/30

P

Above 12,250

DN

Below 12,150


Upside Break...

- Dow breaks consolidation to upside, rallies for solid gains. The index reversed from the afternoon lows and rallied to a solid 90 point gain.

- The NASDAQ and S&P each each pushed higher today, but the tech-heavy index clearly lagged the broader market. Each index has formed a higher low within the current buying spree from yesterday's lows, which indicates continued strength.

Summary

The Dow closed the day with a solid gain after breaking through and holding above the key 12,150 fulcrum. Continued near-term strength should be seen above this level, unless a violation occurs.

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Technical Indicators

Vertical Horizontal Filter

Created by Adam White, the Vertical Horizon Filter illustrates the trendiness of a particular equity. It helps display whether the stock is following a trend or a trading range.

If the Vertical Horizon Filter is rising, this may indicate a trend is forming. The higher the indicator, the better other trend-following indicators will work. Falling values may indicate that prices may be falling out of the trend and entering a congestion phase (the stock trades within a certain price range without much net up or down movement).

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Volume Helps Identify Reversals

Various price patterns can alert us to potential reversal candidates. Trendline Breaks, Support and Resistance Levels, Fibonacci Retracement Levels and other price information are valuable in determining a change in direction for a security. However, one of the most overlooked chart patterns that help us determine reversals is not reflected in the price itself. Volume climaxes are easily identifiable and valuable in assessing a change in market sentiment.

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NASDAQ Chart of the Day




AKAM is winding up within the boundaries of a large consolidation range, which spans from 46.00 to 52.00. Watch for a solid breakout from this range for key movement.

Daily Trading Signals

 
NYSE Chart of the Day




GMR is testing the lower trend line of a large triangle range that has a back end of 11 points. A breakout from this triangle could spark a move of 11 points should a clean and solid breakout opportunity presents itself. Watch 35.00 for early weakness and 34.00 for confirmed selling.

Daily Trading Signals

 
Daily Market Commentary

Updated Tuesday, 11/28 for Wednesday's market.


Key DOW Levels for 11/29

UP

Above 12,300

DN

Below 12,050


Holding...

- Dow hits new lows, but pulls back to hold near overall lows. The index pulled back from the day's lows and proceeded to consolidate the remainder of the session and recorded a mild 15 point gain in the process.

- The NASDAQ and S&P each each pulled back from lows and have begun to build out large ranges. Look for further range development ahead of the next key breakout.

Summary

The Dow closed the day with a modest advance today and is now holding within the boundaries of a clear consolidation range. Look for more range activity, as the index continues to build out the potential continuation pattern.

Read More...

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

 
Technical Indicators

Moving Average, Triple Exponential

The Triple Exponential Moving Average (TRIX) is an oscillator used to identify oversold and overbought markets as well as a momentum indicator. For use as an oscillator look for a positive value to indicate an overbought market and a negative value indicate an oversold market. When TRIX is used as a momentum indicator, a positive value suggests increasing momentum just as a negative value suggests momentum is decreasing. Some believe that the TRIX crossing above the zero line is a buy signal and a closing below the zero line is a sell signal. Divergence between price and TRIX can also indicate significant turning points in the market.

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Moving Averages Help Us Identify Trend Reversals

One of the old axioms of technical analysis is that 'the trend is your friend'. This holds true, as long as you trade in the direction of the trend. However, your 'friend' has two faces, and can turn on you to eliminate profits (and your friendship!). Trend reversals can occur at any time and one of the important skills a trader must possess is the ability to identify a reversal. It is easy to exit a position too early if we over-anticipate a trend reversal, and just as easy to watch our profits evaporate if we are too slow to exit the trade.

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NASDAQ Chart of the Day




GOOG took a moderate gap down today and dropped steadily throughout the session, breaking a clear lower trend line in the process. Look for an easily pull-back toward the 38-50% Retracement zones, which lie from 445 to 462. Such a pull-back could net nice points in a short span of time.

Daily Trading Signals

 
NYSE Chart of the Day




HLF is holding firmly at major resistance at 41.35, which has held since May. Today's reversal could be an early sign that we could get another big decline from this resistance level.

Daily Trading Signals

 
Daily Market Commentary

Updated Monday, 11/27 for Tuesday's market.


Key DOW Levels for 11/28

UP

Above 12,375

DN

Below 12,050


Huge Decline...

- Dow breaks 12,250, drops steadily to the Close. The index also broke a major lower trend line in the process, which could further indicate bigger selling ahead.

- The NASDAQ and S&P each sold off heavily from recent highs and are now holding near lows not seen in two weeks. Look for the indexes to build out a potential continuation pattern before another big move occurs.

Summary

The Dow ended the day at the lows of the session after breaking through 12,250 in sound fashion. The index will likely build out a continuation pattern below 12,200 before another key move is seen.

Read More...

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